How Low Can Silver Go? Bear Market Fibonacci Targets
Silver could have a long way to fall if its bull market is done. Over the past 50 years, silver has given back at least half of every parabolic run – and in 1980 it gave back almost three-quarters. If you run those retracements on the current cycle, the downside zone is somewhere between $37.63 and $19.23.
Where has silver bottomed in past bear markets?
I used the Fibonacci retracement tool in TradingView to analyze the last two bear market lows for silver. It takes the entire bull run from bottom to top, then works out the percentage of that run it gave back (i.e., retraced).
After the 1980 top (exactly $48.00, according to my chart), silver took about 11 years to find its bear market low. It bottomed at $3.48 in 1991 – between the 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Silver handed back most of its run from $1.30 (the bear market 1971 low).
After the 2011 top ($49.83), silver drifted lower for about nine years. That bear market officially bottomed at $11.64 in March 2020 (Covid crash) – just past the 50% retracement. That $11.64 low is also where silver’s six year run to $121.65 began.
| Bull market top | Peak price | Fibonacci retracement zone reached in next bear market | Actual bear market low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | $48.00 | 61.8%–78.6% | $3.48 (1991) |
| 2011 | $49.83 | 50% | $11.64 (2020) |
| 2026 | $121.65 | TBD | TBD. The 50% to 78.6% is between $37.63 and $19.23 |
How low could silver go this time?
Nobody knows for sure whether the January 2026 high of $121.65 was the bull market peak for silver. But as I wrote in March, there’s a good chance that silver’s bubble has popped. That would put silver in a long-term bear market. It could have short-term bounces in that environment, but the general trend would be down over time.
The same Fibonacci math would then suggest a current bear market low somewhere between $37.63 (50% retracement) and $19.23 (78.60%). That could take time.
As usual, none of this is investment advice. To learn more about Fibonacci levels, check out our free Fibonacci trading guide.
