Has Silver’s Bubble Popped? 3 Lower Highs and Counting
Silver peaked at $121.65 on 29 January 2026 after a 292.62% rally in 12 months. Three months later, the weekly chart has printed three lower highs in a row. The trend has flipped from up to down – and the bigger picture might be uglier than most silver bulls realize.
3 lower highs since the January peak
Silver’s weekly chart shows three rejection points since the all-time high:
- 29 January: $121.65 (the peak)
- 2 March: $96.38
- 17 April: $83.05
Each rally has died at a lower level than the one before. That’s a textbook downtrend, with lower lows in between to confirm it. The trend is now down, plain and simple.
A 292.62% rally was never going to last
Silver climbed exactly 292.62% in the 12 months from 29 January 2025 to its peak – nearly 4x in a year. That’s an altcoin-style move on a precious metal.
Sure, there were real fundamentals behind it. Silver is an industrial metal, with demand rising from solar panels, EVs, and electronics. And silver tends to follow gold, which spent 2025 hitting record highs.
But parabolic moves don’t last. Crypto altcoins did the same thing after their 2021 peak – too high, too fast, then a long bear market. Silver looks like it could follow the same script.
We’re probably in the complacency phase
The market cycle follows a predictable pattern after a peak: euphoria, then complacency, then anxiety, denial, panic, capitulation. Most silver bulls right now are still in complacency – buying the dip, convinced the rally is about to resume. But for every late silver buyer, there’s another seller who got in earlier – at a much lower price.
That’s classic post-bubble behaviour. Each lower high gets bought up. Each pullback feels like “the bottom.” Until eventually, it isn’t.
This phase can take time. Markdowns don’t move in straight lines. Range trading might work for active traders (see our trading time frame guide). But the bigger picture says rallies are likely to keep failing at lower levels for months – possibly longer.
A weekly close back above $96.38 (March high) might change the story. Until then, silver’s bubble has likely popped.
As usual, none of this is investment advice. To learn more about how market cycles work, check out our Market Cycle Investing Guide.
