Live Case Study: A Crypto Investing Strategy To Help Overcome 7 Key Risks
In a recent article, I shared my thoughts on Cryptocurrencies as potential long-term investments. In writing that article, I became very interested in them – not just as investments, but also as inventions that could one day improve the global financial system. After spending the last month aggressively researching the subject, I’m now ready to add a small amount of cryptocurrencies to my investment portfolio. In this article, I explain exactly how I am doing this through crypto value averaging.
Disclaimer: this article is not investment advice. I’m just explaining what I’m doing. Investing in cryptocurrencies is extremely risky and the market is not yet properly regulated. Please do your own research before making any investment choices. Invest at your own risk!
This article is split into two parts:
- What I perceive to be 7 key problems (or risks) of crypto investing.
- My strategy to help counter these risks.
Part 2: my strategy for investing in cryptos
In my book about investing in mutual funds, I wrote about how to get rich slowly using basic investment rules and strategies that:
- Work well over time.
- Only require a small amount of time to maintain.
With cryptocurrencies this should be no different. Protecting yourself from the downside risks of investing in cryptocurrencies as much as possible is the most realistic way to earn good investment returns over time.
The crypto market is highly volatile – I cannot stress this point enough.
But in the years to come the technology could have a lasting impact on the world. There are a number of reasons for this which I will cover in a separate post at a later time.
The more people use the technology in their businesses and every day lives, the more money goes into it. The more money goes into it, the larger the crypto market grows.
Identifying how, when and by how much it will grow is impossible.
But investing in the potential growth of the overall cryptocurrency market over the long-term could be very rewarding, provided the risks are reduced as much as possible.
For me, these are the 7 risks I described above.
Once again, this is the strategy I’m using. This is not investment advice!
Here’s the strategy…
1. Strategy aim:
To profit from the potential long term growth of the overall cryptocurrency market in a way that:
- Helps reduce investment risk.
- Prevents me buying everything at the highest possible price.
- Helps me buy more when prices are low, less when prices are high, and sell when prices are really high.
- Keeps trading and other crypto investing costs down.
- Allows for the use of only one or two different crypto currency exchanges.
- Reduces the need for constant monitoring of the crypto currency market.
- Does not require investing in too many different crypto currencies (as this could make cold wallet storage complicated) but still allows for diversification.
2. Strategy overview:
Use Value Averaging (VA) to invest up to EUR 3,000 over the next 6 months at an average value of EUR 500 worth of cryptocurrencies per month. The value is split equally between the following 10 cryptocurrencies:
- Bitcoin (BTH)
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Ethereum Classic (ETC)
- Ripple (XRP)
- Litecoin (LTC)
- Monero (XMR)
- Digital Cash (Dash)
- Lisk (LSK)
- ZCash (ZEC)
After 6 months, a maximum of EUR 300 per currency is invested at an average value of EUR 50 per currency per month.
The above currencies were chosen after some research but also because they are well established and currently have large market shares in the overall crypto currency market.
They all trade on the Kraken exchange except for Lisk (LSK), which trades on the Bittrex exchange.
3. Detailed explanation of investment method:
Use Value Averaging (VA) to invest on the first day of each month. The purpose of this is to:
- Invest more if prices are low.
- Invest less if prices are high.
- Sell if prices are really high.
For simplicity, let’s use Bitcoin as an example below. The same logic is applied to the other 9 currencies.
VA strategy example: Bitcoin
I want to invest a maximum of EUR 300 over the next 6 months in Bitcoin. This means the average value of my Bitcoins must go up by EUR 50 each month (EUR 300 divided by 6 months).
Regardless of what they cost at the time, I want to have invested in EUR 100 worth of Bitcoins in month 2, EUR 150 in month 3, EUR 200 in month 4…and so on…until month 6 when I want to have invested a maximum of EUR 300 in Bitcoins.
September 1st 2017 (in the past):
I bought EUR 50 worth of Bitcoin when the price was EUR 4,057 per coin. Dividing EUR 50 by EUR 4,057 gave me 0.01232 Bitcoins.
October 1st 2017 (in the future):
I will buy or sell Bitcoins depending on the value of my investment on the day. Here are some ‘extreme scenarios’ of what could happen:
Extreme Scenario 1:
The Bitcoin price has doubled and my EUR 50 investment is worth EUR 100 on October 1st.
In this case, I won’t buy any more Bitcoins because their value has increased from EUR 50 on 1st September to EUR 100 one month later.
Remember, I need EUR 100 value in month 2, EUR 150 in month 3, EUR 200 in month 4…and so on…until month 6 where I need EUR 300 value.
Extreme Scenario 2:
The price of Bitcoin has crashed from EUR 4,057 to EUR 1.
The EUR 50 I invested is wiped out. That’s the bad news.
However, I would then need to spend EUR 100 on Bitcoin to increase the value from EUR 50 on 1st September to EUR 100 one month later.
This would allow me to buy 100 Bitcoins at 1 EUR each. That’s the good news.
Extreme Scenario 3:
The price of Bitcoin more than doubles in a month.
In this case, the EUR 50 worth of Bitcoins I bought on September 1st would be worth more than EUR 100.
Let’s say they are worth EUR 130. In this case, I would sell EUR 30 worth of Bitcoins for a EUR 30 profit to get the value back down to EUR 100.
The above scenarios are extreme, but I hope they show how the VCA process works. Read this post on Value Averaging if you need more information.
The logic outlined above is applied to each of the 10 different crypto currencies listed in step 2.
4. Tools used to implement the strategy:
A Value Averaging spreadsheet is used to automate the VA process.
Below are the prices that I entered in row 5 (green) on 1st September 2017 on the ‘input’ tab of the spreadsheet:
There is a tab for each cryptocurrency showing the amount of coins to buy on the 1st day of each month.
For example, based on a EUR 330.01 price of Ethereum on 1st September, I bought 0.151511 Ethereum coins (Ethers).
Because it’s the first month, I had to spend EUR 50 to start with.
Next month, I could spend more (or less) EUR on Ethereum depending on whether the Ethereum price is low (or high).
Suppose that on October 1st the Ethereum price is EUR 400. In this case, I would enter EUR 400 in the ‘input’ tab of the spreadsheet.
Because the price went up, I would buy fewer Ethers and spend fewer euros…
Let’s now suppose the Ethereum price goes up massively over the month to EUR 800 on October 1st 2017.
I would now sell some Ethereum and take profits…
Finally, let’s say the Ethereum price drops to EUR 100.
I would now spend EUR 84.85 on Ethereum and get more coins…
You can click this link to obtain a copy of the VA Crypto Spreadsheet I am using for this strategy.
I have locked the formulas in the spreadsheet so it works as intended. But like Bitcoin, I want to spreadsheet to be open-source.
With this in mind, you can still edit other parts of it yourself to suit your strategy, such as:
- Which currencies (e.g. Euro, Pounds, Dollars) you are using.
- Which cryptocurrencies.
- How many different cryptocurrencies.
You are also welcome to rebuild the spreadsheet as you please using the formulas shown as guidance.
Due to the large number of people that download this spreadsheet daily, I cannot amend it and send out specific versions to suit specific portfolios. If you would like to change this spreadsheet to suit your plans, then please try to amend it yourself or ask a friend who is good with excel!
Disclaimer: The spreadsheet is not investment advice. Invest at your own risk.
Tell Me Where To Send Your Crypto VA Spreadsheet
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4. Investment monitoring:
Anyone reading this can view the portfolio online on cryptocompare.com. I’ve called it the VA Cryptofund.
Below is a snapshot of the portfolio performance as at 4.36 pm London time:
As you can see, the portfolio is already down 12.93% after a couple of bad days on the crypto market.
As a long-term investor I am not so concerned – I hope that by using the VA strategy I will end up with some decent returns over time.
Also notice that the ‘acquisition cost’ is EUR 493.99 when per the VA spreadsheet it should have been EUR 500. This is due to the trading costs and timing issues that we covered as part of problem 6 in part 1 above.
You can signup to the stopsaving.com newsletter if you would like to receive monthly updates and analysis on how the portfolio is doing.
5. Portfolio rebalancing:
In theory, Value Averaging ensures that I always own the same value in each crypto at the start of each month.
Hence, at the start of each month, the portfolio is automatically rebalanced to the original weightings of 10% in each crypto.
6. Flexibility considerations of the strategy:
The strategy allows for some degree of flexibility depending on how things progress.
Suppose in one month I need to spend a very small amount of EUR on a particular currency, or sell crypto coins for a very small amount of EUR.
If it looks like the trading fee for making the trade outweighs the benefit, I will not make the trade.
EUR 3,000 limit:
If crypto prices really plummit over the next few months, I may use up the EUR 3,000 limit before the 6 months is over.
In this case, the strategy will stop. I may then look to hold the coins I bought cheaply over the long term, or look for other opportunities in the crypto market.
Why 6 months?
The future looks promising for cryptocurrencies, but it is still unknown. Spreading out purchases over a 6 month period seems sensible right now.
After the 6 months is up, I will reassess the situation to determine the next steps.
My intention at this stage is to hold the cryptocurrencies over the medium to long term depending on how things look later on.
I’m interested to hear people’s thoughts on this strategy. Feel free to post your comments below.
For more investment strategies and analysis across different types of investments, sign up to the Stopsaving.com newsletter.
Once again, if you need more technical information about setting up crypto wallets, which exchanges to use, how to safely store your cryptos as well as more crypto investing strategies, check out Siam Kidd’s crypto investing video course.