Bitcoin Fibonacci Extension Target: Is $100,000 Fair Game?

Bitcoin is trading well above its last bull market peak of $69,000 – set in the glory days of November 2021. But what’s a reasonable price target for this bull market? If we take a bitcoin Fibonacci extension, $100,000 a coin seems fair. Here’s what you need to know. 

What’s a Fibonacci extension?

A Fibonacci extension is a technical tool that can help us forecast future price targets based on a previous price move. Here’s an example of how it works. Let’s say “Stock A” rallies from $5 to $10 (move 1). It then drops back down to $7.50 (move 2). Now, you could use the Fibonacci extension to forecast where the next rally (move 3) might end up – based on some percentage of the original rally (move 1).

One of the most common Fibonacci extensions is the 0.618 “golden” Fibonacci extension. Here, the extension (move 3) would be 61.8% of move 1. Remember that move 1 (white, below) was from $5 to $10, which is a 100% increase. So in this case, the 0.618 price target for move 3 (gold) would be $7.50 plus a 61.8% rally – or $12.135.

Side note: You can also watch this quick video below, taken from our technical analysis course, where I’ve covered Fibonacci extensions using the S&P 500.

Bitcoin Fibonacci extension history

Bitcoin has gone through boom and bust cycles in the past, with bull market peaks and bear market lows. The chart below shows bitcoin’s highs and lows since 2012. “Rally 2”, from the 2015 low until the 2017 peak, was over 61.8% of “Rally 1” in terms of percentage growth. Here, the 0.618 Fibonacci extension price target was around $8,500. And bitcoin peaked at just around $20,000. 

Rally 3 was also a bit more than 61.8% of Rally 2. In this case, the 0.618 Fibonacci extension was at about $60,000, and bitcoin got a bit above that (around $69,000).

As for Rally 4 (the one we’re in now), the 0.618 bitcoin price target (i.e. 61.8 % of Rally 3) is just above $100,000. So based purely on Fibonacci extensions, $100,000 could be fair game in this bull run. 

Of course, this is all just speculation right now. Bitcoin could easily over or undershoot the mark, depending on a range of factors. Just because something happened in the past, doesn’t mean it will play out the same way in the future.

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