Downside Fibonacci Targets (If Bitcoin Has Already Topped)
If bitcoin has already peaked for this market cycle, you can naturally expect a bear market. In that case, the chart below shows some potential downside targets using Fibonacci retracement levels. These zones could make for good long-term bitcoin buys.
Bitcoin Fibonacci retracement chart explained
The chart shows bitcoin’s price in logarithmic scale – which keeps the percentage moves in visual proportion. That’s usually better when you’re analyzing longer-term trends. I’ve used the Fibonacci retracement tool in TradingView to plot three potential downside price targets for bitcoin:
- 23.60% Fibonacci retracement (green) at $68,930.98.
- 38.20% retracement (blue) at $51,811.44.
- 50% retracement (white) at $41,135.38.
These levels show how much of the bull market gains bitcoin could “give back”. The rally started from the 2022 bottom at $15,473.78 and (possibly) peaked at $109,354 in 2025. The 23.60% Fib at $68,930.98 is the closest to bitcoin’s current price. If bitcoin gets there, it means it would give back 23.60% of its bull market gains.
Here’s how that works. From the 2022 bottom to the 2025 peak, bitcoin gained about 606%. A 23.60% retracement would mean giving back 23.60% of that gain – leaving around 463% from the bottom. Add that to the bottom price of $15,473.78, and you get $68,930.98 (23.60% Fib).
The chart below might offer some historical context. In the 2018 bear market, bitcoin hit the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at $3,158.14. And in 2022, it got all the way to the 50% retracement at $14,761.59.
As always, this isn’t investment advice. Download our free PDF guide for a deeper understanding of Fibonacci trading.
